Bold Prediction: 2026 Projections Will Miss the Mark on Pitching Performance—Here’s Why
Spring has arrived, and with it, the thrill of live baseball is back! In this article, we’ll dive into some standout performances that have caught my eye. But here’s where it gets controversial: despite the buzz, I’m already spotting discrepancies between the data and my instincts. And this is the part most people miss—environmental factors like wind and stadium design could be skewing our early-season insights.
Next week, I’m excited to share my 1-30 pitching development rankings, a project fueled by insights from over 50 MLB coaches and executives. Stay tuned for that deep dive!
This spring, I’ve noticed several head-scratching moments where the numbers just don’t align with expectations. Take Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller, for instance. Their four-seam fastballs looked disastrous in their first starts, only to bounce back in their second outings. Richard Fitts suddenly showed increased movement on his four-seamer and sweeper on February 25, while Rays prospect Ty Johnson added 3 inches of vertical break to his fastball—without any changes in release or spin. What’s going on here?
While I’m no expert in pitch modeling or environmental adjustments, I suspect wind and data inconsistencies are major culprits. Baseball analyst Vivienne Pelletier highlights that crosswinds can alter a pitch’s trajectory by up to 4 inches. Additionally, stadiums without upper decks create a different wind pattern, and spring training parks differ significantly from MLB venues. Even pitcher Robert Stock has noted how air density impacts pitch performance on platforms like Stuff+.
Here’s the takeaway: If you see a sudden spike in pitch movement without changes in mechanics or spin, don’t jump to conclusions. Assume pitchers are performing as they did in the 2025 regular season until 2026 MLB data proves otherwise. For example:
- Feb 23: 2 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 2 K
- Feb 28: 3 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 4 K
Now, let’s talk about a pitcher who struggled last season but might defy projections in 2026. The Nationals, who led MLB with 55% fastball usage (four-seam and sinker combined) in 2025, have slashed that to just 41.7% this spring—second-lowest in the league. While clearer examples will emerge during the regular season, Andrew Irvin’s case is particularly intriguing. His projections are abysmal (~5.00 ERA in ~20 starts), but his spring adjustments suggest a potential turnaround.
Irvin has cut his four-seam and sinker usage to 40% after relying on them 54% of the time last season. Against lefties, his curveball now leads the mix at 30%, with his cutter close behind at 25%. Against righties, he’s tripled his short slider usage to 23%. The strategy? Reduce reliance on his four-seam fastball, which allowed a 16% barrel rate to righties and 12% to lefties.
But here’s the controversial question: Are these spring adjustments sustainable, or will pitchers revert to old habits once the regular season begins? Let me know your thoughts in the comments—I’m eager to hear if you agree or think I’m missing something!
